Economic growth is stable in the fourth quarter of 2025

Second release confirms 0.5% growth in Q4 2025: Dutch GDP increased 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4, unchanged from both the prior quarter's reading and the flash estimate released on 30 January. It was also comfortably above the downwardly revised 0.2% growth in the euro area. In annual terms, GDP increased 1.8% in Q4, also unchanged from the provisional figure. Full-year growth for 2025 was downwardly revised to 1.8% from 1.9% in the flash release, though it remained at a three-year high (2024: +1.1%) and above the euro area average, with the Dutch economy outperforming Germany, France and Italy.

Improved trade balance and public spending drive GDP growth: Compared to the previous quarter's data, the reading for fixed investment improved in Q4 (+0.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis vs -1.4% in Q3). In contrast, readings worsened for private consumption (+0.2% vs +0.3% in Q3), exports of goods and services (+1.0% vs +1.1% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (+0.1% vs +0.4% in Q3). Finally, the variation in government consumption was the same as in the prior quarter (+0.7% in Q4 and Q3). The statistical office highlighted that, in the final quarter of 2025, the economy expanded mainly due to an improved trade balance, whereas in 2025 as a whole, the trade balance plus household and public consumption were the biggest contributors to GDP growth.

GDP growth outlook turns more cautious: Over the past month, the outlook for sequential GDP growth in Q1 2026 has remained broadly stable. However, economic growth in the remaining quarters of 2026 has been revised downward, likely reflecting the impact of the U.S.-Iran war. In line with this, annual GDP growth in 2026 has also been revised slightly downward. It should moderate from 2025’s three-year high as growth in private consumption, fixed investment and exports weakens. Higher public spending on defense may now provide insufficient support to offset more sluggish private investment, held back by elevated energy prices and geopolitical tensions. Higher-for-longer energy prices are a downside risk.

Panelist insight: ING senior economist Marcel Klok commented on the GDP outlook: “Overall, the Dutch economy is expected to slow from solid growth of 1.8% in 2025 to a more moderate pace of 1.3% in 2026. The economy remains resilient, supported by a strong labour market, ongoing wage growth and expanding public spending. However, the assumption of higher energy prices for longer materially worsens the outlook by pushing up inflation, dampening consumption growth and holding back investment.”

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