Inflation eases in December on yet another methodology change

Inflation eases amid new calculation method: Consumer prices increased 15.2% on a year-on-year basis in December, following a 17.3% increase in the prior month. December's reading was the weakest since November 2020 and followed a methodological change by the statistical office made to avoid an artificial spike in inflation following January 2025’s rebase. The change in methodology also led to the revision of inflation rates from January–November 2025. Relative to the prior month's figures, there were reduced price pressures for food (+11.3% in annual terms vs +13.0% November), clothing and footwear (+13.2% vs +15.1% in November) and housing and energy (+17.6% vs +20.1% in November). Meanwhile, core consumer prices rose 18.2% in annual terms in December, following a 19.8% rise in the prior month. Finally, consumer prices were up 0.54% in December in month-on-month terms, following a 1.22% rise in the previous month.

New methodology to affect forecasts: In addition to the statistical office revising its inflation calculation method, the Central Bank announced that it is transitioning to an inflation-targeting framework, aiming to slow price growth to 13% next year. Following these recent changes, our panelists are currently updating their predictions for inflation. The Central Bank expects inflation to fall further ahead.

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