Economic growth ebbs in the third quarter of 2025

GDP growth eases slightly in Q3: Norway's GDP increased 1.1% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q3, following 1.2% growth in the prior quarter. Q3’s print marked the third consecutive expansion. Additionally, mainland GDP increased 0.1% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q3, following 0.5% growth in the prior quarter. On a seasonally adjusted year-on-year basis, economic output increased 2.2% in Q3, following 0.3% growth in the prior quarter. Additionally, mainland GDP grew 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted year-on-year basis in Q3, following 2.0% growth in the prior quarter.

Government spending and fixed investment weigh on reading: Compared to the prior quarter's data, readings in Q3 worsened for government consumption (-0.1% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs +0.4% in Q2) and fixed investment (-1.3% vs +3.4% in Q2), likely constrained by historically high interest rates. In contrast, readings strengthened for private consumption (+1.1% vs +0.8% in Q2), exports of goods and services (+1.9% vs +1.7% in Q2) and imports of goods and services (+1.1% vs -0.5% in Q2).

Resilient external sector and domestic demand to drive growth ahead: Our panelists expect sequential GDP growth to decelerate from Q3 in the coming quarters. Still, the economy is set to clock a faster expansion in 2026 compared to 2025. The external sector is seen braving the storm, while domestic demand should remain solid thanks to loose fiscal policy, positive real income growth and gradual monetary policy easing. Euro area economic growth following the introduction of U.S. tariffs is key to monitor, while further levies pose downside risks.

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