Economy slips into contraction in the fourth quarter of 2025

Q4 puts an end to a year of sequential growth: Norway's GDP contracted 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4, reversing the upwardly revised 1.3% growth in the previous quarter. Q4's reading was the weakest since Q3 2024. Conversely, mainland GDP expanded 0.4% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q4, following 0.1% growth in the previous quarter, broadly in line with market expectations. On a year-on-year basis, Norway’s GDP grew 2.2% in Q4, unchanged from the prior quarter's reading. Additionally, mainland GDP grew 1.9% on a year-on-year basis in Q4, following a 1.3% expansion in the prior quarter. Over 2025 as a whole, Norway’s GDP expanded 1.2% in seasonally adjusted terms (2024: +1.5%), falling short of both the prior decade trend of 1.7% and the Nordic average.

Drop in petroleum activities and foreign shipping drives downturn: Compared with the previous period's data, readings in Q4 softened for total private consumption (+1.0% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis vs +1.3% in Q3) and exports of goods and services (+3.6% vs +3.8% in Q3) as petroleum activities and foreign shipping activities fell. In contrast, readings strengthened for government consumption (+0.4% vs +0.1% in Q3), fixed investment (+7.2% vs +0.1% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (+3.6% vs +1.1% in Q3).

Slight uptick in GDP growth penciled in for 2026: Economic growth is seen returning on a sequential basis in Q1 2026, and accelerating later in the year. In annual terms, GDP growth is seen accelerating slightly from 2025 in 2026, aided by monetary policy easing, supportive fiscal policy and strong private spending growth amid lower inflation. That said, weaker external demand and low prices for hydrocarbons—around 15–20% of GDP—may weigh on overall momentum.

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