Inflation accelerates in February from the prior month

Latest reading: Consumer prices were up 2.4% in annual terms in February, following a 2.0% rise in the previous month. February's reading was the strongest since January 2025. As such, inflation stood within the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0% target range. Relative to the prior month's figures, there were higher price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+1.8% on a year-on-year basis vs +1.1% in January), clothing and footwear (+2.4% vs +2.3% in January) and housing and utilities (+3.5% vs +3.3% in January). In contrast, price pressures reduced for transport in February (-0.3% vs -0.2% in January). Finally, consumer prices were up 0.15% in February in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms, following a 0.77% increase in the previous month.

Panelist insight: ING’s Deepali Bhargava commented on risks to the inflation outlook: “The Philippines relies on the Middle East for almost 90% of its oil supply, making it one of the most vulnerable economies in the region to the ongoing supply disruption. Higher oil prices raise inflation both directly (fuel and transport) and indirectly (food and logistics). Around a 20% increase in oil prices from February levels could add up to 0.8ppt to headline inflation if the increase is sustained and fully passed through to retail prices.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Philippine inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 37 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Philippine inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Philippine inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Philippine inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.