Central Bank leaves rates unchanged in February

Rates remain close to three-year low: At its meeting on 3–4 February, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) decided to keep the NBP reference rate at 4.00%. The reference rate was reduced by 175 basis points in 2025 to its lowest level since March 2022.

Tame inflation and strong GDP growth motivate hold: With resilient GDP growth in Q4 2025 and inflation expected to remain within-target in the coming quarters, the Bank deemed that neither a rate cut nor a hike was warranted.

Panelists see rate cuts resuming in March: Virtually all panelists expect rate cuts to resume in March, a view reinforced by Governor Adam Glapinski’s comments at a subsequent press briefing. In 2026 as a whole, the NBP is seen reducing rates by 25–100 basis points, as inflation should remain within the Central Bank’s 1.5–2.5% tolerance range and GDP growth should broadly maintain 2025’s momentum. Moreover, the zloty should hold up against the EUR through Q4 2026, leaving room for monetary policy loosening. The NBP is set to reconvene on 3–4 March.

Panelist insight: ING’s Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak commented: “We still expect the next rate cut in March and by the end of 2026 the main policy rate might be reduced to 3.25% or even below, while the NBP governor seems to be leaning more towards 3.50%. We are a bit more optimistic on the CPI outlook in 2026 than the governor and see CPI below target in 2026, even flirting with the lower bound, i.e., 1.5% YoY in some months.” Erste Bank’s Jakub Cery said: “Following an anticipated cut in March, we expect the MPC to pause for confirmation that price and wage pressures are under control before considering further reductions in the second quarter, bringing the rate to 3.5%. Finally, while a further cut to 3.25% is not currently in our baseline, it remains a distinct possibility and represents our second-most likely scenario.”

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