Economic growth picks up in the third quarter of 2025

Annual GDP growth revised up from flash estimate: According to a second release, Poland's GDP expanded 3.8% on a year-on-year basis in Q3, following a 3.3% expansion in the previous quarter. Q3's reading was revised up from the 3.7% flash estimate and was the strongest in three years. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy increased 0.9% in Q3, following 0.8% growth in the prior quarter.

Domestic demand remains solid: Relative to the previous period's data, readings in Q3 improved for government consumption (+7.4% on a year-on-year basis vs +2.0% in Q2), fixed investment (+7.1% vs -0.7% in Q2), exports of goods and services (+6.1% vs +1.9% in Q2) and imports of goods and services (+5.9% vs +3.4% in Q2). In contrast, the reading for private consumption worsened in Q3 (+3.5% vs +4.5% in Q2).

Panelist insight: ING’s Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak commented on the outlook: “We had expected 2026 growth to be similar to 2025, but given the strong end to this year, we are now expecting growth to fall within the 3.5-4.0% range. The key will be maintaining consumption growth and improving investment, linked to the implementation of projects under the National Recovery Plan (KPO), which will formally close next year, although it may still boost investment and consumption in early 2027. This is the main difference between our forecasts and the consensus. We assume that some KPO projects will still be carried out in 2027, which will help to “smooth out” the public investment boom before the final deadline for fund disbursement at the end of 2026.”

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