Central Bank cuts rates again in November

NBP makes fourth cut in a row: At its meeting on 4–5 November, the Central Bank (NBP) cut the NBP reference rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25%. The cut was the fourth consecutive, bringing the NBP reference rate to a three-and-a-half-year low, and was largely in line with market expectations.

Favorable inflation outlook backs November’s cut: An unexpected decline in consumer price inflation in October plus further improvement in the inflation outlook from the prior month’s meeting allowed the NBP to cut rates again in November. Meanwhile, the Bank raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 0.6 percentage points from July’s projection.

NBP to cut rates again in 2026: Looking ahead, most of our panelists expect the NBP to hold rates steady at its final meeting of the year on 2–3 December, before cutting again in 2026. Forecasts for the next year vary from 25 to 125 basis points of additional easing by the end of 2026. Stronger domestic demand and elevated wage growth pose upside risks to the reference rate.

Panelist insight: ING’s Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak commented on the outlook: “Taking into account the scale of monetary easing so far this year (150bp), the fact that the Council traditionally refrains from policy moves in December, and the blurred inflation picture at the beginning of the year, we may witness a pause in monetary adjustment in the coming months. […] We expect another cut to take place in March and see the target rate between 3.5-4% to be achieved in mid-2026, rather than in 2027 as we had expected previously.”

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