Central Bank leaves rates unchanged in January

Bank pauses easing cycle: At its meeting on 13–14 January, the Central Bank (NBP) decided to keep the NBP reference rate at 4.00%. This followed December’s 25 basis point cut and 175 basis points of reductions in 2025 as a whole.

Tame inflation and strong GDP growth underpin hold: A hike was off the cards for the NBP, as inflation remained within the Bank’s 1.5–3.5% target range in December, while a cut was deemed unnecessary, as the Bank expects GDP growth in Q4 to have remained close to Q3’s three-year high. Furthermore, at a subsequent press briefing, Governor Adam Glapinski said the Bank expects inflation to remain within target and GDP growth to remain robust in 2026.

More easing ahead: All of our panelists see at least 25 basis points of further rate cuts by the end of 2026. Our Consensus is for inflation to remain within the Central Bank’s tolerance range and for GDP growth to broadly maintain 2025’s momentum this year. Moreover, the zloty should hold up against the EUR through Q4 2026, leaving room for further monetary policy adjustments by the NBP. The NBP is set to reconvene on 3–4 February.

Panelist insight: ING’s Adam Antoniak commented on the outlook for inflation and monetary policy: “In our view, the first months of 2026 will bring a further decline in inflation, and there is still room for interest rate cuts due to the increasing risk of undershooting the inflation target in the medium term. As a result, we believe the pause in monetary easing will be brief. We expect another 25bp rate cut in March and NBP interest rates to be lowered to 3.25% by the end of the year from the current 4.00%.”

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