Economic growth accelerates in the fourth quarter of 2025

GDP growth inches up in Q4: The economy expanded 0.8% on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4 2025, following a 0.7% rise in the previous quarter. The reading was among the strongest in the EU. On a seasonally and calendar-adjusted year-on-year basis, economic output increased 1.9% in Q4, following 2.4% growth in the prior quarter. This brought annual GDP growth for 2025 as a whole to 1.9%—the lowest level in the post-pandemic era (2024: +2.1%).

Improvement in net trade supports growth: The National Statistics Institute’s preliminary national accounts release was void of details, but hinted that net trade’s contribution to quarter-on-quarter GDP growth turned positive in Q4 on reduced imports of oil products. In contrast, the contribution of domestic demand to overall GDP was negative, as private consumption growth slowed and investment fell sharply. Turning to the year-on-year GDP result, the deceleration was due to a slowdown in private consumption and investment, while the negative contribution of net external demand became less pronounced thanks to a decline in imports of oil products. A more comprehensive national accounts publication will be released by the Statistics Institute on 27 February.

GDP growth to rise in 2026 from 2025’s post-pandemic low: Looking at Q1 2026, sequential GDP growth is expected to roughly halve from the final quarter of 2025, before broadly stabilizing through Q4 2027. In 2026 as a whole, growth should rise above its 2025 level, supported by accelerating fixed investment and exports plus slowing import growth. Investment will benefit from Next Generation EU funds and favorable financing conditions.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Portuguese GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 28 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Portuguese GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Portuguese GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Portuguese GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.