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Economic Growth in Russia
Over the last decade, Russia's GDP growth experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and oil price volatility. The economy contracted in 2015-2016 due to declining oil prices and the impact of sanctions linked to the annexation of Crimea, recovering slightly thereafter. COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine brought further downturns in 2020 and 2022, respectively. That said, the economy has performed much better than expected since 2023, thanks to war-related investment and government spending, and the country's ability to skirt Western sanctions by rerouting exports through unaffected countries, particularly in Asia.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Russia was 4.34%, compared to 0.74% in 2014 and 4.08% in 2023. It averaged 1.45% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Russia GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Russia from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
Russia GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.7 | 5.9 | -1.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,489 | 1,828 | 2,243 | 2,062 | 2,166 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 1,306 | 1,546 | 2,134 | 1,907 | 2,003 |
| GDP (RUB bn) | 107,658 | 134,727 | 156,941 | 176,414 | 201,152 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.8 | 25.1 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 14.0 |
Economic growth ebbs in the third quarter of 2025
GDP growth hits a 10-quarter low in Q3: According to a preliminary estimate, Russia's GDP grew 0.6% on a year-on-year basis in Q3, following 1.1% growth in the prior quarter and marking the weakest result since Q1 2023.
War fatigue and high interest rates hamper economic growth: The disappointing Q3 reading was likely the result of several shocks. High interest rates—deemed necessary by the Central Bank to reduce inflation—likely weighed on business investment and consumer borrowing. At the same time, lower oil prices will have strained public coffers, as fossil fuel revenues account for nearly one-fifth of government income. Moreover, last month, the U.S. introduced some of its toughest sanctions yet on Russia’s energy sector—targeting the nation’s two largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil—in an effort to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. Finally, Ukraine's attacks on Russia’s energy grid will have weighed on economic activity more broadly.
Economy to contract in Q4: Our Consensus is for GDP to contract year on year in the last quarter of 2025. High interest rates and inflation, coupled with labor shortages, are set to weigh on household budgets. Moreover, international sanctions plus low oil prices should hit export revenues and government spending in turn. In 2026 as a whole, our panelists expect economic growth to remain close to 2025’s three-year low and below the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 1.9%. Key factors to track include oil prices, sanctions on oil re-exports and peace negotiations.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Russian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 37 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Russian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Russian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Russian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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