Economic growth increases in the last quarter of 2025

Solid Q4 GDP growth: According to a preliminary reading, Saudi Arabia's GDP increased 4.9% on a year-on-year basis in Q4, following a 4.8% expansion in the previous quarter. In seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy grew 1.1% in Q4, following a 1.4% increase in the previous quarter.

Oil sector drives economic growth: Compared to the prior quarter, the reading in Q4 improved for the oil sector (10.4% in year-on-year terms vs 8.3% in Q3). In contrast, readings in Q4 worsened for the private non-oil sector (4.1% vs 4.3% in Q3) and government non-oil activities (-1.2% vs 1.4% in Q3). The oil sector contributed significantly to economic growth in Q4, following the easing of production restrictions that Saudi Arabia had previously imposed in coordination with its OPEC+ partners.

GDP growth to stabilize in 2026: Our panelists expect GDP growth in 2026 to be roughly the same as in 2025. OPEC+’s decision to extend the pause on planned oil ouput hikes through March 2026 is likely to be a key factor contributing to this slowdown. Still, the economy remains on a strong trajectory, with growth of non-oil GDP set to keep rising at an upbeat pace in 2026 as the government continues to diversify the economy away from oil.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Saudi Arabian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Saudi Arabian private consumption.

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