Panelist insight: As a result of the Iran war, on 5 March, Goldman Sachs analysts have halved their forecast for GDP growth in 2026 to 2.1%, but explain that Saudi Arabia will be insulated by alternative export routes that avoid the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz: “In our new base case, we assume that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted at current levels (10%-15% of normal) for one week, before gradually (and in a linear fashion) recovering to pre-conflict levels over a period of 28 days […]. The impact on oil exports under these assumptions is uneven across GCC oil exporters. For GCC countries that can export oil away from the Strait, the downside from reduced exports is likely to be more limited, while the upside from higher oil prices remains [...]. Saudi Arabia and the UAE both potentially have latent pipeline capacity to divert crude to the Red Sea and Fujairah respectively, and we assume that Saudi Arabia diverts around 3mbpd (around two-thirds of its exports via SoH), while the UAE can divert 1mbpd. We stress that there is significant uncertainty around these estimates. Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar all have no capacity to divert shipments.” On the same topic, Fitch Solutions commented: “We have only slightly lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Saudi Arabia from 4.8% to 4.6% in response to the ongoing US–Iran conflict, with impacts concentrated in tourism and logistics. Saudi Arabia enters this period with strong reserve buffers and relatively low debt levels, and our Oil and Gas team continues to expect Saudi oil output to expand at its fastest pace since 2022 this year. Risks are firmly skewed to the downside. Under a prolonged, high-intensity conflict scenario, oil exports, the fiscal balance, investment and supply chains would come under pressure, compounded by elevated security risks and the potential involvement of the Houthis.”

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