Q1 GDP growth revised up in June

GDP reading: In a second release, annual GDP growth in Q1 was revised up to 3.4% (preliminary reading: +2.7% yoy), while remaining below the 4.4% expansion seen in the fourth quarter of last year. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth improved moderately to 1.1% in Q1 (preliminary reading: +0.9% qoq s.a.), following the previous quarter's 0.9% growth and marking the strongest expansion since Q1 2024.

Drivers: Household spending increased 4.5% in the first quarter, which was above the fourth quarter's 3.6% expansion. Public consumption rebounded, growing 5.2% in Q1 (Q4 2024: -6.9% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment rebounded, growing 8.5% in Q1, following the 4.2% contraction logged in the prior quarter. Exports of goods and services growth fell to 1.5% in Q1, marking the worst reading since Q2 2024 (Q4 2024: +5.3% yoy). Meanwhile, imports of goods and services growth moderated to 2.7% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +10.5% yoy).

Panelist insight: EIU analysts said: “Economic growth over the next two years will benefit from a gradual phasing out of voluntary constraints on oil production, as agreed with Saudi Arabia’s OPEC+ partners. Growth over the forecast period (2025-29) as a whole will also be driven by a rising contribution from non-oil sectors, such as tourism, manufacturing and mining.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Saudi Arabian government consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 8 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable government consumption forecast available for Saudi Arabian government consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Saudi Arabian government consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Saudi Arabian government consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.