GDP growth rises in Q4, but Iran war poses downside risk to outlook

GDP reading: Saudi Arabia's GDP expanded by an upwardly revised 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in Q4 (preliminary reading: +4.9% yoy), following a 4.8% expansion in the prior quarter. Q4's reading was the strongest in a year, driven by the fastest expansion in the oil sector in just over three years as OPEC+ loosened output quotas.

Private consumption drives upturn: Compared with the previous quarter's data, the reading for private consumption improved in Q4 (+3.6% on a year-on-year basis vs +2.7% in Q3). In contrast, readings softened for government consumption (-8.5% vs -3.1% in Q3), fixed investment (-3.1% vs -0.7% in Q3), exports of goods and services (+12.8% vs +18.4% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (+1.0% vs +4.3% in Q3). In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy grew 1.4% in Q4, following 1.2% growth in the previous quarter.

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