Robust 2024 GDP growth despite deceleration in the fourth quarter

Growth cools in Q4: A second release revealed that GDP growth lost some traction in Q4, falling to 5.0% year on year from 5.7% in the third quarter. That said, Q4’s figure came in above the flash estimate of 4.3% and was the second-highest in three years. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy expanded 0.5% in Q4, compared to the previous quarter's 3.0% rise. In 2024 as a whole, economic growth soared to 4.4%, surpassing 2023’s 1.8% and marking the best result since 2017, excluding 2021’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic slump.

Private consumption and exports lose steam: Domestically, private consumption growth decelerated to 2.2% in Q4 (Q3: +6.4% yoy)—the lowest reading since Q3 2023—hampered by a high base effect and the ongoing normalization of labor market conditions. That said, government spending growth soared to 16.2% (Q3: +8.3% yoy), the best reading since Q3 2020, likely due to the upcoming general elections, which must be held by November. Moreover, fixed investment growth edged up to 4.9% in Q4 from Q3’s 4.7% amid an improvement in construction activity. Externally, exports growth fell to 3.2% in Q4 from Q3’s 4.4%, the weakest reading of the year amid an unfavorable base effect, while growth in imports ticked down to 3.8% (Q3: +4.2% yoy), denting the contribution of net exports to the overall result.

Economy to lose momentum: Our panel expects GDP growth to lose steam from current levels through Q3 2025, as the temporary boost from import front-loading ahead of U.S. President Trump’s tariffs will fade in the coming quarters. Consequently, our panelists forecast economic growth to cool from 2024’s uptick. Private spending will decelerate, dented by a high base of comparison and a gradual reduction in cost-of-living support by the government. Still, pre-election spending and the government’s recently approved budget could provide tailwinds. Additionally, fixed investment is expected to gain momentum, bolstered by looser monetary conditions, the implementation of the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone and the construction of a new terminal at Changi Airport, set to start in H1.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Jester Koh, analyst at United Overseas Bank, said: “Front-loading of exports and production ahead of Trump’s tariffs should provide some near-term boost to the manufacturing and transportation & storage sectors although there is likely to be some payback towards the latter half of 2025. […] While Singapore may be less susceptible to direct US tariff risks, we will not be shielded from a negative shock to the global trade environment given our extensive reliance on trade as a small and open economy as reflected by the significantly higher share of domestic value added embodied in foreign final demand amongst the ASEAN-6 economies.” On a similar note, Chua Han Teng, economist at DBS Bank, stated: “The full-year outlook faces considerable downside risks, especially from rising geopolitical tensions due to higher tariffs and elevated trade policy uncertainty under Trump 2.0. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) maintained its 2025 growth forecast range at 1.0% to 3.0%. We view the lower bound as leaving scope for any negative growth disappointment.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Singapore GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 28 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Singapore GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Singapore GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Singapore GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.