Economic growth ends 2025 on stronger footing

Q4 GDP growth surprises markets on the upside: According to a preliminary estimate, Slovakia's GDP increased 1.0% on a year-on-year basis in Q4, following a 0.9% expansion in the previous quarter. Q4's reading was the strongest in a year, and came in slightly above market expectations, while remaining relatively weak. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy expanded 0.3% in Q4, stable from the previous quarter's reading. In 2025 as a whole, GDP grew 0.8%, down from a 1.9% rise in 2024 and hitting a three-year low.

Investment and net trade underpin Q4’s GDP growth: The statistical office cited investment and net trade as the main drivers of economic growth in the quarter. Investment benefited from stronger outlays from the public sector, pointing toward a faster absorption of EU funds. Moreover, past ECB interest rate cuts likely aided investment further. Exports, meanwhile, may have faced up to U.S. tariffs better than anticipated. A complete breakdown of the GDP figures will be released on 6 March.

Economic growth to gain steam in 2026: Our panelists expect Q1 2026 annual economic growth to hover around Q4’s rate, supported by past ECB interest rate cuts and EU fund inflows. In 2026 as a whole, GDP growth is expected to gain traction from 2025; fixed investment should accelerate and private consumption growth is forecast to remain resilient. That said, higher global trade frictions should weigh on export growth, and fiscal consolidation will likely drag on public spending growth. As a result, in 2026, the economy should still expand at a rate below the prior decade’s average. Fiscal stimulus in Germany and stronger-than-expected economic growth elsewhere in the euro area pose upside risks to GDP growth.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Matej Hornak, analyst at Erste Bank, stated: “A key determinant of future growth will be the evolution of foreign trade and the accompanying recovery of the European economy, particularly in Germany. We expect that the fiscal package adopted there could help revive German economic activity, although given its structure, the spillover effects on Slovakia will likely be more limited. Additional support should come from the ECB’s accommodative monetary stance and continued spending from the Recovery Plan. Economic growth will also be shaped by ongoing fiscal consolidation, which will weigh on this year’s performance.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Slovak private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Slovak private consumption.

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