Economic growth accelerates in the third quarter of 2025

GDP growth exceeds market forecasts: According to a preliminary estimate, Slovakia's GDP increased 0.9% in seasonally adjusted annual terms in Q3, following 0.5% growth in the prior quarter. The reading overshot market expectations but was still one of the weakest in the post-pandemic era. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP grew 0.4% in Q3, following a 0.2% expansion in the prior quarter.

Fixed investment and net trade drive GDP growth: The statistical office cited investment and net trade as the main growth drivers. Fixed investment likely benefited from past ECB interest rate cuts. Exports, meanwhile, may have faced up to U.S. tariffs better than anticipated. A complete breakdown will be released on 5 December.

Economic growth to pick up: Our panelists expect Q4 annual economic growth to hover around Q3’s rate, supported by lower inflation plus past ECB interest rate cuts. In 2026, GDP growth should accelerate from 2025; fixed investment and private consumption are forecast to remain resilient. That said, U.S. tariffs are set to cap export growth, and public spending growth will be constrained by fiscal consolidation under the European Commission’s excessive deficit procedure. As a result, economic growth will linger below the prior decade's average. Germany’s fiscal stimulus might have some positive ripple effects on the Slovak economy, posing an upside risk to GDP growth.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Matej Hornak, analyst at Erste Bank, stated: “One of the key factors for future growth will be the further development of foreign trade and the related recovery of the European economy, especially Germany. We assume that the fiscal package there could help restart the German economy, although […] the impulse for the Slovak economy will be smaller. Positive effects will also come from the impact of the ECB’s more accommodative monetary policy and funds from the Recovery Plan. Economic growth is also influenced by ongoing fiscal consolidation.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Slovak government consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 11 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable government consumption forecast available for Slovak government consumption.

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