Economic growth picks up in the third quarter of 2025

GDP growth improves but remains weak: A second release confirmed that Slovakia's GDP increased 0.9% on a year-on-year basis in Q3, following 0.5% growth in the previous quarter. Still, Q3’s reading remained well below the past 10-year average. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP expanded 0.3% in Q3, following a 0.2% expansion in the previous quarter.

Fixed investment and net exports drive GDP growth: Compared to the prior period's data, the reading for fixed investment improved in Q3 (+4.5% on a year-on-year basis vs +3.9% in Q2). In contrast, readings worsened for private consumption (+0.4% vs +2.0% in Q2), government consumption (+1.6% vs +1.9% in Q2), exports of goods and services (+1.3% vs +3.8% in Q2) and imports of goods and services (+0.2% vs +2.8% in Q2). On the domestic front, fixed investment was the main driver of growth, likely bolstered by the ECB’s easing cycle plus EU fund inflows. That said, elevated inflation—more than double the 2.0% ECB target—and fiscal consolidation efforts were seemingly behind the decelerations in private and public spending. On the external front, net exports surprisingly contributed to GDP growth despite U.S. tariffs hampering Slovakia’s external sector.

GDP growth to improve ahead: Our Consensus is for annual GDP growth in Q4 to hover around Q3’s rate, supported by lower inflation, EU funds and past ECB interest rate cuts. In 2026, economic growth is expected to improve from 2025’s subdued levels amid laxer financing conditions, EU fund inflows and a rebound in industrial output triggered by higher defense spending in the EU. In contrast, U.S. tariffs are set to cap export growth, and public spending should rise at a softer pace, limited by fiscal consolidation under the European Commission’s excessive deficit procedure. As a result, 2026 economic growth will remain below the prior decade's average.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Marian Kocis, analyst at Erste Bank, stated: “Looking ahead, foreign trade and the recovery of the European economy, particularly Germany, will be among the main drivers of growth. We anticipate that Germanys fiscal stimulus could help revive its economy, although the spillover effect on Slovakia will likely be limited.”

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