Q4 GDP growth disappoints markets

GDP growth decelerates in the final quarter of 2025: In Q4 2025, the economy grew 0.2% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in the fourth quarter, down from the prior quarter’s 0.9% expansion, according to the statistical office’s preliminary estimate. This undershot market expectations. In annual terms, seasonally adjusted GDP growth ticked down to 1.7% following Q3’s 2.4% reading, revealing that the economy fared better in H2 than in H1. Accordingly, seasonally adjusted GDP growth in 2025 as a whole is estimated at a four-year high of 1.7% (2024: +0.9%).

Private consumption weighs on GDP growth: While a full breakdown has yet to be published, the deceleration appears to have been driven by a notable fall in household spending in December. Monthly data reveals that private consumption growth deteriorated in Q4 vs Q3. On the other hand, merchandise exports rebounded in Q4, likely capping the slowdown. A more comprehensive breakdown of national accounts data for Q4 will be released on 27 February.

Growth to pick up ahead: Our panelists expect Q4’s slowdown to have been temporary, as economic growth is seen gaining traction again in sequential terms in Q1, before broadly stabilizing through end-2027. Consequently, GDP growth is set to hit a five-year high in 2026 as a whole: Domestic demand should drive momentum, bolstered by lower inflation and the lagged impact of earlier interest rate cuts. Economic momentum in top trading partners Germany and Norway is key to track, while higher U.S. tariffs on Swedish exports pose a downside risk.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Swedish GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 32 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Swedish GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Swedish GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Swedish GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.