Exports surge again in October

Latest reading: In October, the trade balance was USD +22.6 billion, following a USD +12.4 billion reading in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +135.9 billion. Exports rose 49.7% in year-on-year terms in October, coming on the back of 33.8% growth in the prior month and well above market expectations. Exports rose by double digits to all key trading partners, with sales to the U.S. increasing the most. As in past months, higher sales of IT products—linked to the boom in global AI demand—drove exports. Imports increased 14.6% in year-on-year terms in October, coming on the back of a 25.1% rise in the prior month.

Panelist insight: Digging deeper into the data, Nomura analysts said: “The divergence between strong tech versus sluggish non-tech exports has continued to widen. Tech export growth surged to 73.1% y-o-y in October from 48.7%, led by automatic data processing machines (a proxy for AI server demand), whose growth surged by 202.2% y-o-y, and telephones (including smartphones), whose growth doubled to 60%. By contrast, non-tech export growth fell to -0.3% y-o-y from 2.8%, with base metals, autos, plastic & rubber, and textiles still reporting negative export growth, as tariffs and overcapacity issues continue to weigh on those sectors.”

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