Merchandise trade slips into deficit in October

Latest reading: In October, the trade balance was USD -1.0 billion, following a USD +3.6 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +24.0 billion. Exports were up 5.3% in annual terms in October, coming on the back of a 19.1% rise in the previous month. October's reading was the weakest since September 2024. Imports rose 17.2% in year-on-year terms in October, coming on the back of 17.9% growth in the previous month.

Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented on the outlook: “We forecast that Thailand's real exports of goods and services will expand at a much slower rate of 1.6% in 2026, after an estimated 6.8% increase in 2025, which had benefited from front-loading activity. Higher US reciprocal tariffs that took effect in August will significantly dampen export growth to that market, with the impact more visible from the later part of 2025. Thailand's manufactured exports, which are more exposed to the US market, will achieve significantly slower growth. […] The trade surplus will narrow in 2026, when we expect the US's implementation of broader trade protectionist measures and China's greater reliance on import-substitution policy, curbing export growth for Thailand.”

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