GDP reading: The economy contracted 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter, contrasting the fourth quarter’s...
Economic Growth in United Kingdom
The United Kingdom's GDP growth from 2013 to 2022 was impacted by Brexit uncertainties and the COVID-19 pandemic. Early in the decade, the economy experienced steady, though moderate, growth. The Brexit referendum in 2016 introduced prolonged economic uncertainty, affecting investment and growth. The pandemic caused a historic contraction in 2020, but a strong recovery followed in 2021-2022, albeit with ongoing challenges from Brexit-related trade disruptions and soft global economic conditions.
The United Kingdom recorded an average real GDP growth rate of 1.7% in the decade to 2022. This is slightly below the 1.8% average for major economies. In 2022, real GDP growth was 4.3%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
United Kingdom GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for United Kingdom from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
United Kingdom GDP Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.6 | -10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 0.4 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 2,850 | 2,698 | 3,143 | 3,112 | 3,370 |
| GDP (GBP bn) | 2,234 | 2,103 | 2,285 | 2,526 | 2,711 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.8 | -5.8 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 7.3 |
Economic activity records quickest growth since March 2024 in February
GDP reading: GDP rose 0.5% month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms in February (January: 0.0% mom). The result marked the best reading since March 2024, and was far above market expectations. On a rolling quarterly basis, GDP rose at a faster rate of 0.6% in December last year to February (November last year to January: +0.3% qoq), the best result since the three months up to May 2024.
Drivers: Industry, services and construction all expanded in February, with manufacturing the standout performer thanks to higher IT and pharma output.
Panelist insight: On the latest data, ING’s James Smith said: “The monthly GDP figures are often more noise than signal. We saw something similar this time last year, where just two months drove the bulk of the overall growth in 2024, which doesn't feel particularly realistic. If we’re to take anything away from these latest figures, though, it’s that there’s probably a bit too much gloom surrounding the near-term outlook. Yes, tariffs are a headwind, but […] more as a byproduct of what happens to the US economic outlook overall. Lower demand in the US will, in time, wash up on UK shores. But in the meantime, remember that the UK government is dramatically increasing spending this year, both via day-to-day and capital budgets. For all the talk of spending cuts, departmental spending is increasing by 4% in real terms over the next fiscal year.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects British GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 62 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for British GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our British GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of British GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
Latest Global GDP News
-
Korea: GDP records sharpest contraction since Q4 2022 in the first quarter -
Malaysia: GDP growth records fastest upturn since Q1 2023 in the first quarter Q1 growth records the best result in 2 years: A preliminary report shows that GDP growth increased to 4.2% year... -
China: GDP growth beats expectations in Q1 Temporary factors boost output: GDP growth clocked 5.4% year on year in Q1 2025, matching the prior quarter’s reading and... -
United Kingdom: Economic activity records quickest growth since March 2024 in February GDP reading: GDP rose 0.5% month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms in February (January: 0.0% mom). The result marked the best... -
Guatemala: Final quarter of 2024 sees best GDP growth reading since Q2 2022 Q4 2024 records the highest GDP growth since Q2 2022: GDP grew 4.5% year on year in Q4 2024 (Q3:... -
Ukraine: Economy ends 2024 with a contraction GDP drops for the first time in almost two years in Q4: GDP contracted 0.1% annually in Q4, according to... -
Canada: Economy expands at the sharpest pace in two years in January GDP reading: GDP rose 0.4% month on month in seasonally adjusted terms in January (December: +0.3% mom s.a.), outpacing market...