Retail sales stagnate in December

Latest reading: Nominal retail sales flatlined in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in December, following a 0.6% rise in the previous month and below market expectations. Relative to the previous month's data, readings in December softened for motor vehicle and parts dealers (-0.2% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms vs +1.2% in November) and gasoline stations (+0.3% vs +1.7% in November). In contrast, readings picked up for food and beverages (+0.2% vs -0.1% in November) and non-store retailers (+0.1% vs 0.0% in November). Finally, the variation in general merchandise stores was the same as in the prior month (-0.1% in December and November). On a year-on-year basis, retail sales rose 2.4% in December, following a 3.3% increase in the prior month.

Panelist insight: TD Economics’ Ksenia Bushmeneva said: “Retail sales ended the year on a softer footing. After rising for two consecutive months, core sales took a breather in December, while the negative revisions to the previous two months suggest that retail spending had a bit less bounce in its step than previously reported. Still, consumer spending remained resilient through the final quarter of 2025, which was marked by a lengthy government shutdown. According to our tracking, consumer spending likely increased by around 3.0% (annualized) in Q4 2025, only slightly lower than the 3.5% gain in the previous quarter.”

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