Retail sales rebound in November

Latest reading: Nominal retail sales were up 0.6% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in November, following a 0.1% decline in the previous month and well above market expectations. Relative to the previous month's figures, readings in November improved for motor vehicle and parts dealers (+1.0% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms vs -1.6% in October) and gasoline stations (+1.4% vs -1.2% in October). In contrast, readings worsened for food and beverages (+0.1% vs +0.2% in October), general merchandise stores (0.0% vs +0.5% in October) and non-store retailers (+0.4% vs +1.0% in October). On a year-on-year basis, retail sales rose 3.3% in November, unchanged from the previous month's reading.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, TD Economics’ Ksenia Bushmeneva said: “We expect consumer spending to remain robust at the start of 2026. Consumers should benefit from previous interest rate cuts as they feed through the economy, some stabilization in the labor market, and non-accelerating inflation. Households will also benefit from the fiscal boost stemming from the OBBBA, as higher tax refunds— which are expected to arrive between February and April—temporarily boost household income and spending.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects American retail projections for the next ten years from a panel of 4 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable retail forecast available for American retail.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our American retail projections.

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