Merchandise trade slips into deficit in December

Latest reading: In December, the trade balance was USD -0.7 billion, following a USD +1.1 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +19.1 billion. Exports rose 23.9% in annual terms in December, up from 15.8% growth in the previous month and far exceeding market expectations. Imports rose 27.7% in year-on-year terms in December, coming on the back of a 16.3% rise in the prior month. December's imports reading was the strongest since February 2025.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, analysts at Goldman Sachs stated: “We forecast export growth in volumes to moderate early in the year. Capacity constraints in semiconductor production, particularly memory chips, and a sequential slowdown in AI hardware demand will limit increases in tech export volumes. Furthermore, non-tech exports are likely to remain subdued, weighed down by persistent regional overcapacity in sectors such as steel, chemicals, consumer electronics, and electric vehicles.”

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