Economic growth rises in the fourth quarter of 2025

Economy ends 2025 on a high note: Vietnam's GDP expanded 8.5% in annual terms in Q4, following an 8.3% expansion in the prior quarter. Q4's reading was the strongest since Q3 2022 and overshot market expectations. As a result, Vietnam’s economy expanded by 8.0% in 2025 (2024: +7.0% yoy), falling short of the government’s 2025 target of 8.3–8.5%, yet recording its strongest performance in at least 16 years and remaining among the world’s fastest-growing economies.

Exports drive economic growth: Relative to the previous period's data, figures in Q4 improved for the industrial sector (+9.7% on a year-on-year basis vs +9.4% in Q3) and the services sector (+8.8% vs +8.7% in Q3). Finally, the variation in the agricultural sector was the same as in the prior quarter (+3.7% in Q4 and Q3). Industrial activity improved as exports remained an important driver of growth during Q4, despite the 20% U.S. tariffs imposed since August: In 2025, Vietnam posted a record USD 133.9 billion trade surplus with the U.S., reflecting industry relocation from China following Trump’s first term. The tourism sector also likely aided services in Q4, with visitor arrivals growing at a healthy pace in October–December.

Momentum to ease but remain strong: Annual GDP growth is expected to ease from Q4 2025 levels in the coming quarters as factory output loses steam amid softer global goods demand, the boost from export front-loading wanes and the tech cycle matures. Even so, Vietnam’s structural advantages—including low labor costs, improving infrastructure and a deep pipeline of foreign direct investment—should keep industrial production growth well ahead of regional peers, positioning Vietnam as the fastest growing economy in ASEAN for the third consecutive year.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, EIU analysts stated: “We will revise up our [2026] real GDP growth forecast […]. This revised outlook is driven by three pillars: sustained expansion in export-oriented manufacturing and FDI-driven capacity build-out; continued public investment in transport, energy and digital infrastructure; and robust services demand anchored by tourism and a still-supportive labour market.”

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