Merchandise trade slips into deficit in December

Latest reading: In December, the trade balance was USD -0.7 billion, following a USD +1.1 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +19.1 billion. Exports rose 23.9% in annual terms in December, up from 15.8% growth in the previous month and far exceeding market expectations. Imports rose 27.7% in year-on-year terms in December, coming on the back of a 16.3% rise in the prior month. December's imports reading was the strongest since February 2025.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, analysts at Goldman Sachs stated: “We forecast export growth in volumes to moderate early in the year. Capacity constraints in semiconductor production, particularly memory chips, and a sequential slowdown in AI hardware demand will limit increases in tech export volumes. Furthermore, non-tech exports are likely to remain subdued, weighed down by persistent regional overcapacity in sectors such as steel, chemicals, consumer electronics, and electric vehicles.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Vietnamese trade projections for the next ten years from a panel of 7 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable trade forecast available for Vietnamese trade.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Vietnamese trade projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Vietnamese trade forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.