Merchandise trade surplus shrinks in October

Latest reading: In October, the trade balance was USD +2.6 billion, following a USD +2.8 billion reading in the prior month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +20.2 billion. Exports rose 18.0% in year-on-year terms in October, following a 25.2% rise in the prior month. Slower export growth was attributed to easing U.S. demand; in particular, the largest decrease in shipments was seen for phones—despite exemption from higher U.S. tariffs—followed by textiles. In contrast, footwear shipments rebounded in October after a sharp drop in the previous month. Imports rose 17.4% in year-on-year terms in October, following a 25.4% rise in the previous month. Geographically, the U.S. remained Vietnam’s largest export market despite trade protectionism, while China continued to be the main import source.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Vietnamese trade projections for the next ten years from a panel of 7 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable trade forecast available for Vietnamese trade.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Vietnamese trade projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Vietnamese trade forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.