GDP reading: China’s GDP grew 4.5% on a year-on-year basis in Q4, following a 4.8% expansion in the previous quarter....
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Live Global GDP Growth Forecast
Last updated 27 January 2026
Current 2025 Global GDP Growth Consensus Forecast
2.8
+0.09 pp
30 days ago
The FocusEconomics World GDP Consensus Forecast is based on 3,500 individual projections for GDP growth across 198 countries.
Global GDP Forecast Evolution
The latest FocusEconomics Consensus projects World Real GDP growth at 2.8% in 2025. During the latest month, panelists hiked the 2025 growth forecast by 0.09 percentage points, reflecting a stronger outlook for Canada, India, Ireland, Taiwan, and the United States. On the contrary, downgrades for Belgium, Mexico, and Russia partially offset the upgrade.
Global GDP Forecast Revisions
Latest GDP News
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China: Economic growth eases in the fourth quarter of 2025
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Malaysia: Economic growth rises in the fourth quarter of 2025
Economy ends 2025 on a high note: Malaysia’s GDP grew 5.7% in annual terms in Q4, following a 5.2% expansion...Read more
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United Kingdom: Economy rebounds in November
GDP reading: GDP was up 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis in November, following a 0.1% decline in the...Read more
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Guatemala: Economic growth picks up in Q3 2025
GDP growth accelerates in Q3: Guatemala’s GDP expanded 4.3% on a year-on-year basis in Q3, marking a three-quarter high, following...Read more
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6500
Total Individual Forecasts
368
Participating Institutions
39
Commodities Forecasts
198
Countries Covered
Frequently Asked Questions
The global GDP forecast for 2025 is the latest FocusEconomics Consensus estimate of the real variation (i.e., adjusted for price changes) in the total value of all goods and services produced globally in 2025 compared to the previous year. In other words, it is an estimate of how much the world’s total economic output is expected to grow or shrink in 2025.
The global GDP forecast is updated daily, in order to ensure that the forecast always reflects the latest available data. Data is not updated on weekends and public holidays in Spain.
The global GDP forecast is the weighted average of the GDP growth forecasts for the 198 countries FocusEconomics covers, updated daily. The weighted average is calculated using each country’s nominal GDP in U.S. dollars at market exchange rates—not based on purchasing power parity (PPP) weights, which are typically used by institutions like the IMF and World Bank.
FocusEconomics compiles forecasts from the leading international investment banks, national financial institutions, consulting firms, think tanks, professional forecasting companies, credit rating agencies and public institutions. The global GDP forecast is based on 3,123 projections from 368 institutions.
The depth of the panel—with hundreds of contributing institutions—combined with daily forecast updates makes the global GDP growth projections timely as well as accurate. Moreover, every individual forecast from a contributing institution undergoes rigorous quality control checks from our in-house team of economists and data analysts before being incorporated into the global projection.
Multiple factors influence the global economic outlook. Chief among them are government and central bank policies (tax and spending measures, structural reforms, interest rate changes, etc), geopolitical developments (trade agreements, conflict, etc), the rate of technological change, and natural disasters.
The global GDP forecast for 2025 is notably lower than past years, and looks set to be the worst since 2020, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is a result of global trade tensions and a slowdown in China’s economic growth potential; China had in past years been a significant contributor to global growth.