Major Economies Economic Outlook
The U.S. is forecast to grow above 2% for the seventh straight year in 2027, with Canada slightly behind and expansions in the remaining G7 economies clustering between 0.5–1.5%. Downside risks are numerous and include further U.S. tariffs, persistently high energy prices, a sudden pullback in AI spending and worsening Russian hybrid attacks on Europe.
Major Economies Inflation
Inflation is currently above central banks’ 2.0% targets in all G7 economies bar Japan as a result of high energy prices. Between now and the end of next year, price pressures are projected to dim across the bloc, in line with likely easing energy costs. Prolonged disruptions in the Hormuz Strait are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 54,411 | 55,523 | 58,583 | 60,819 | 64,307 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.6 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.02 | 3.30 | 4.56 | 3.70 | 2.94 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 124 | 119 | 117 | 117 | 117 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,768 | 5,522 | 5,186 | 5,343 | 5,584 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -1,274 | -1,524 | -1,335 | -1,488 | -1,596 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 3.1 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,494 | 3,998 | 3,851 | 3,855 | 3,988 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | 1.3 | -0.7 | -1.4 | 1.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -1.3 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,958 | 1,755 | 1,835 | 1,764 | 1,964 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |