Major Economies Economic Outlook
G7 economies will experience a two-speed growth pattern this year. The U.S. is set to remain ahead with above-2% growth, supported by resilient consumer spending and strong technology investment. Canada, Japan and the leading European economies will post more modest growth below 1.5%. Shifts in U.S. tariff policy and the Iran conflict are the key risks.
Major Economies Inflation
So far this year, inflation has averaged close to or under central banks’ 2.0% inflation targets in most G7 economies, though the U.S. and in particular the UK have seen above-target price growth. On average this year, inflation is forecast in the 1.5–3.0% range across economies. Upward forecast revisions are likely ahead due to the Iran war.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.6 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 124 | 119 | 117 | 117 | 118 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 54,336 | 55,481 | 58,492 | 60,581 | 64,106 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | 1.3 | -0.8 | -1.5 | 1.0 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,770 | 5,520 | 5,187 | 5,346 | 5,572 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,481 | 3,981 | 3,823 | 3,808 | 3,981 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -1,287 | -1,539 | -1,364 | -1,506 | -1,591 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,958 | 1,755 | 1,836 | 1,766 | 1,966 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 2.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.02 | 3.30 | 4.56 | 3.71 | 2.94 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 |