Major Economies Economic Outlook
The G7 is expected to grow in 2026 at about the same pace as in 2025. Lower average interest rates compared to 2025, fiscal stimulus in Germany and heavy spending on AI-related sectors—particularly in the U.S.—will underpin growth. However, the exhaustion of export frontloading and higher U.S. trade barriers compared to before Trump took office will be drags.
Major Economies Inflation
To date in 2025, inflation in Canada and the eurozone’s three largest economies has averaged around or below central banks’ 2.0% targets. In contrast, Japan, the UK and the U.S. have recorded inflation in the 2.5–3.5% range. In 2026, inflation is expected to average above 2.0% in the UK and the U.S. and near or below 2.0% in Canada, the eurozone and Japan.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 48,882 | 54,197 | 55,336 | 58,599 | 60,671 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 133 | 127 | 120 | 119 | 119 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.02 | -0.01 | 3.31 | 4.58 | 3.72 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,810 | 1,958 | 1,755 | 1,836 | 1,766 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.8 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 2,856 | 3,481 | 3,982 | 3,823 | 3,809 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -1,084 | -1,287 | -1,538 | -1,364 | -1,532 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,940 | 4,768 | 5,520 | 5,187 | 5,341 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -3.9 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -7.2 | 5.8 | 1.3 | -0.9 | -1.5 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -5.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 |