Major Economies Economic Outlook
2026 GDP expansions will differ notably between G7 economies. The U.S. economy will lead, expanding over 2% owing to healthy consumer spending and tech investment. Less positively, Canada, Japan and Europe’s top economies are seen growing between 0 and 1%, as they all lack the U.S.’ booming AI sector, loose fiscal stance and strong consumer spending.
Major Economies Inflation
Since the Iran war broke out, inflation has jumped in Canada, the eurozone and the U.S. due to higher energy prices, edged up a tad in Japan as state intervention capped some of the increase in energy costs, and dipped in the UK as the regulated energy price cap was lowered. Inflation should top central banks’ 2.0% inflation targets across the G7 in 2026 as a whole.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,958 | 1,755 | 1,835 | 1,764 | 1,964 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 54,336 | 55,484 | 58,496 | 60,593 | 64,060 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,770 | 5,520 | 5,187 | 5,348 | 5,587 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -1,287 | -1,539 | -1,364 | -1,497 | -1,607 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | 1.3 | -0.8 | -1.5 | 1.1 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.6 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 124 | 119 | 117 | 117 | 118 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.02 | 3.30 | 4.56 | 3.70 | 2.94 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.4 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,481 | 3,981 | 3,823 | 3,808 | 3,980 |