Major Economies Economic Outlook
The G7 economy as a whole will grow more slowly than the prior ten-year average this year and next, kept in check by more protectionist U.S. trade policy and uncertainty over how U.S. tariffs might evolve going forward. The U.S. will be the bloc’s top performer this year and next, while the three large Euro area economies plus Japan will be laggards.
Major Economies Inflation
So far this year, inflation in Canada and the three largest Eurozone economies has hovered around or under central banks’ 2.0% goals, and this should remain the case ahead. Inflation has been well above the 2.0% target in Japan, the UK, and the U.S. Through the end of 2026, inflation should remain above target in the UK and the US and converge to target in Japan.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2021.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -5.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -3.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 133 | 127 | 120 | 119 | 119 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.02 | -0.01 | 3.31 | 4.58 | 3.72 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 48,827 | 54,110 | 55,258 | 58,474 | 60,559 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,810 | 1,958 | 1,755 | 1,836 | 1,766 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.9 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -1,082 | -1,288 | -1,533 | -1,364 | -1,532 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -7.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 2,856 | 3,481 | 3,984 | 3,823 | 3,809 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,938 | 4,768 | 5,517 | 5,187 | 5,341 |