ASEAN Economic Outlook
ASEAN’s GDP growth should edge down from 2025 in 2026, as U.S. tariffs begin to take a toll on exports. Still, our panelists have upgraded their 2026 economic outlook following better-than-expected Q4 readings in several ASEAN countries. The region will remain among the fastest-growing globally on solid growth in private spending and investment.
ASEAN Inflation
Regional inflation in 2025 was likely in line with its past-decade average and relatively low compared to other emerging markets, amid a rising influx of cheap Chinese goods. In 2026, price pressures should rise from 2025 in most regional economies due to interest rate cuts. Still, low commodity prices and resilient regional currencies should tame average inflation in the region.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.86 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,431 | 1,775 | 2,044 | 1,891 | 2,009 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,680 | 5,096 | 5,464 | 5,594 | 5,782 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,214 | 1,551 | 1,784 | 1,632 | 1,780 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 91.5 | 90.5 | 84.5 | 86.2 | 87.6 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 218 | 223 | 260 | 259 | 229 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.9 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.4 | 60.7 | 63.2 | 64.8 | 66.1 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.8 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.2 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 |