ASEAN Economic Outlook
Our panelists continued to raise their forecasts for 2026 GDP growth in recent weeks, with the global electronics super-cycle set to support regional momentum. That said, softer growth in private spending and investment compared to 2025, coupled with global trade protectionism and energy supply shocks, is likely to keep regional GDP growth below 2025’s rate.
ASEAN Inflation
In January, ASEAN inflation picked up from the prior month, remaining at its highest level since August 2024. As a result of recent disruptions to global oil prices and depreciatory pressures to regional currencies, our panelists expect ASEAN inflation to increase even more sharply in 2026. Prolonged energy price shocks are key to watch.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -3.0 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.86 | 3.95 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,775 | 2,044 | 1,891 | 2,009 | 2,172 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,096 | 5,464 | 5,595 | 5,782 | 6,092 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,551 | 1,784 | 1,632 | 1,780 | 1,937 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 | 1,141 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 90.5 | 84.5 | 86.2 | 87.6 | 87.1 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 223 | 260 | 259 | 229 | 236 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 60.7 | 63.2 | 64.8 | 66.1 | 67.3 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 |