ASEAN Economic Outlook
ASEAN’s GDP growth should hover near its prior 10-year average in 2025, likely buoyed by public stimulus. Still, private spending, fixed investment and exports should lose steam from 2024 due to spillovers from U.S. protectionism—many regional economies still rely on exports to drive growth. Higher-than-expected U.S. tariffs are a downside risk.
ASEAN Inflation
Regional inflation moderated in May, but price pressures picked up in most ASEAN economies in June. In 2025 as a whole, ASEAN inflation is projected to fall year on year on aggregate, remaining firmly below the global average on relatively strong regional currencies. Stronger-than-expected public stimulus in response to global trade protectionism poses an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2023 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,680 | 5,096 | 5,464 | 5,594 | 5,782 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -2.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.86 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,431 | 1,775 | 2,044 | 1,891 | 2,008 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,214 | 1,551 | 1,784 | 1,632 | 1,783 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,101 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 91.5 | 90.6 | 84.4 | 86.3 | 88.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.4 | 60.6 | 63.2 | 64.8 | 66.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.2 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.6 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.9 |