ASEAN Economic Outlook
In 2026, ASEAN GDP growth should inch down from 2025, as U.S. tariffs begin to bite. That said, the region will remain among the fastest-growing globally amid resilient growth in private spending and investment. Fiscal stimulus and re-routing of goods from China via ASEAN as firms look to reduce their tariff burden should also provide tailwinds.
ASEAN Inflation
So far in 2025, ASEAN’s inflation has been tame compared to other emerging markets, partly due to a rising influx of low-cost Chinese goods. Price pressures should pick up in most regional economies in 2026 on interest rate cuts. However, ASEAN’s inflation should hover near the past decade’s average on soft commodity prices and resilient regional currencies.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 91.5 | 90.5 | 84.5 | 86.2 | 87.6 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,680 | 5,096 | 5,464 | 5,594 | 5,782 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.9 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.86 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,214 | 1,551 | 1,784 | 1,632 | 1,780 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.4 | 60.7 | 63.2 | 64.8 | 66.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,431 | 1,775 | 2,044 | 1,891 | 2,009 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 218 | 223 | 260 | 259 | 229 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.8 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.2 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 |