Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
Our panelists have raised their forecasts for CENAM GDP growth in 2026, which is seen near 2025’s rate. Private spending should expand slightly faster, and fixed investment should roughly maintain its momentum, both supported by lower interest rates. Still, a sluggish U.S. economy and ramped-up deportations pose a downside risk to investment, remittances and tourism.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In January–October, inflation in CENAM averaged below 2024’s rate, with several key economies seeing prolonged declines in prices. In 2026, however, average inflation should hit a three-year high, fanned by lower interest rates, weaker regional currencies and stronger private spending growth. Extreme weather events fueling food and energy costs are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -9.8 | -4.2 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -3.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,426 | 6,058 | 6,689 | 7,174 | 7,589 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 62.2 | 58.0 | 54.7 | 52.3 | 51.9 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 74 | 80 | 79 | 87 | 91 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.05 | 2.46 | 6.37 | 5.67 | 4.96 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 73.4 | 67.9 | 64.1 | 61.3 | 60.1 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -19.5 | -39.1 | -60.8 | -66.7 | -54.3 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -15.5 | 21.0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 3.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -6.0 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 4.5 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -7.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.3 | -1.1 | -1.8 | -0.7 | 0.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 9.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 152 | 191 | 233 | 234 | 223 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 132 | 151 | 172 | 168 | 169 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 |