Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
Our panelists see CENAM GDP growth in 2026 near 2025’s rate. Private spending and fixed investment should prove resilient, supported by lower interest rates. Meanwhile, goods exports should lose steam on aggregate amid U.S. protectionism. A sluggish U.S. economy and ramped-up deportations pose a downside risk to investment, remittance inflows and tourism.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In January–November, inflation in CENAM averaged below 2024’s rate, with several key economies seeing prolonged deflation. In 2026, our Consensus is for average inflation to rise to a three-year high as interest rates fall and regional currencies weaken vs the USD. Extreme weather events fueling food and energy costs are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.46 | 6.36 | 5.67 | 4.96 | 4.33 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 67.9 | 63.8 | 63.2 | 60.1 | 61.6 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -39.1 | -61.0 | -66.7 | -61.5 | -65.8 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.0 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 21.2 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 10.9 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 151.4 | 171 | 167.6 | 171 | 171 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 190.6 | 232 | 234.3 | 232 | 236.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 6,058 | 6,691 | 7,174 | 7,589 | 7,879 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.1 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.5 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -3.2 | -3.0 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.0 | 54.7 | 52.3 | 51.9 | 52.2 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | 91.0 | 100 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.1 | -1.8 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 |