Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Next year, the region’s economy is set to post its highest growth rate since 2022. Faster growth in exports and fixed investment will buttress momentum, aided by lower interest rates and stronger industrial output. Subdued EU demand plus the slower-than-expected absorption of EU funds pose downside risks to the outlook.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In November, regional inflation fell to a six-month low. Despite a projected uptick in GDP growth and lower interest rates next year, our panelists expect inflation in CEE to ease from 2025, remaining below the prior-decade average. However, weaker-than-expected regional currencies fanning import costs pose an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.6 | 11.0 | 5.5 | -2.5 | -0.6 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.25 | 1.58 | 6.20 | 6.16 | 5.03 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -2.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 8.3 | -1.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 53.0 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.4 | 6.4 | 4.4 | -0.5 | 3.7 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.3 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 |