Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Our panelists see GDP growth in CEE at a four-year high in 2026, aided by stronger expansions in goods exports and fixed investment, the latter thanks to lower interest rates and accelerating industrial output. Still, downside risks to CEE GDP growth include weaker-for-longer EU demand curbing exports plus slower-than-expected EU funds absorption denting investment.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In October, regional inflation eased from September. In 2026, our Consensus is for CEE inflation to cool from 2025 and undershoot the prior 10-year average. This is despite the fact that GDP growth is set to speed up and interest rates are projected to fall. Weaker-than-expected regional currencies fanning import costs pose an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.6 | 11.0 | 5.5 | -2.5 | -0.6 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -2.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 8.3 | -1.6 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.4 | 6.4 | 4.4 | -0.5 | 3.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.26 | 1.65 | 6.38 | 6.23 | 5.12 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 53.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.3 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 |