Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
The region is set to clock its strongest GDP growth in four years in 2026. Lower interest rates should buttress domestic demand, while stronger export growth amid renewed momentum in top trading partner Germany should provide a tailwind. EU demand plus the absorption of EU funds remain key to track.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
Regional inflation fell to a near two-year low in January. Our Consensus is for average inflation in the region to fall to a six-year low this year, aided by softer food price pressures. Still, greater-than-expected interest rate cuts and a spike in energy prices related to renewed conflict in the Middle East pose upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.6 | 11.0 | 5.5 | -2.5 | -0.6 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.4 | 6.4 | 4.4 | -0.5 | 3.7 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -2.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 8.3 | -1.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.25 | 1.58 | 6.20 | 6.16 | 5.03 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 53.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.3 |