CIS Countries Economic Outlook
Our panelists expect GDP growth in the CIS Plus region to undershoot the world average in 2026 for a second successive year: War fatigue, Western sanctions and low oil prices should drag on the Russian economy. That said, GDP growth in Central Asia and the Caucasus should remain strong. Russia-Ukraine peace talks are key to monitor.
CIS Countries Inflation
Regional inflation has averaged around 9% so far this year—above the global average—but has been on a downward trajectory since April amid aggressive interest rate hikes in Russia and Ukraine. In 2026 as a whole, CIS Plus inflation should average the lowest in the post-pandemic era, dampened by softer private consumption growth. Energy shortages are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 43.7 | 37.4 | 28.4 | 28.3 | 26.8 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,067 | 8,583 | 10,223 | 10,003 | 10,543 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 410 | 512 | 501 | 566 | 582 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 25.5 | 22.1 | 23.6 | 25.7 | 26.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 487 | 712 | 835 | 651 | 666 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 5.29 | 8.86 | 9.64 | 15.51 | 19.04 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -5.3 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 79 | 204 | 341 | 94 | 91 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 721 | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.4 | 5.6 | -1.8 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.1 | 7.9 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 5.3 | -1.4 | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.9 | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.6 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.1 | 4.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.9 | 9.1 | -1.4 | 7.1 | 6.0 |