CIS Countries Economic Outlook
A recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war pushed our panelists to downgrade their forecasts for 2027 GDP growth. The regional economy is expected to trail the global average next year as the conflict will continue to drag on the largest economies. Still, Central Asia and the Caucasus should grow at a solid pace, supported by strong infrastructure spending.
CIS Countries Inflation
In September, regional inflation rose from July’s level, with price pressures overshooting central bank targets in most of the big regional economies due to fuel shortages linked to the Russia-Ukraine war. In 2027, regional inflation should hit a seven-year low due to softer household spending growth. Energy price spikes are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 22.1 | 21.0 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 24.0 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.86 | 9.59 | 15.31 | 18.75 | 15.53 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,602 | 10,262 | 9,942 | 10,623 | 12,198 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 513 | 502 | 567 | 581 | 612 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 712 | 835 | 652 | 666 | 646 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 3.3 | 15.8 | 9.0 | 2.3 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 198 | 330 | 81 | 81 | 29 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.4 | 28.4 | 28.5 | 26.6 | 25.7 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 9.1 | -2.3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 4.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.8 | -2.6 | -3.3 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 4.8 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.5 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 | 988 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.7 | -1.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.0 | -1.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.9 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.4 |