CIS Countries Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for GDP growth in the CIS Plus region to hit a four-year low in 2026 before picking up in 2027. Tighter fiscal policy vs 2025 and still-elevated interest rates will weigh on regional economies this year. Still, higher-for-longer energy prices are an upside risk, as they could boost the fiscal firepower of many oil-producing countries in the region.
CIS Countries Inflation
In March, regional inflation remained below its 10-year average of 7.2% for a fourth successive month, hinting that price pressures in the region are on a downward trajectory after peaking at a three-year high in 2025. This year, inflation should hit a six-year low due to softer private spending growth and high interest rates. High energy prices are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.4 | 28.4 | 28.5 | 26.6 | 26.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.9 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 9.1 | -2.3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.6 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 3.3 | 15.8 | 8.7 | 2.2 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | -1.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,602 | 10,262 | 9,942 | 10,632 | 12,183 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 22.1 | 21.1 | 22.6 | 22.7 | 24.6 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.86 | 9.59 | 15.31 | 18.75 | 15.53 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.8 | -2.6 | -3.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 713 | 835 | 652 | 666 | 649 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 202 | 340 | 93 | 92 | 36 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.6 | -1.8 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 4.8 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.5 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 514 | 502 | 567 | 581 | 614 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 | 988 |