CIS Countries Economic Outlook
Our panelists expect CIS Plus GDP growth in 2026 to remain relatively subdued compared to the post-Ukraine invasion average. Western sanctions and war fatigue are expected to drag on heavyweight Russia. That said, economic growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia should remain solid. Russia-Ukraine peace talks are key to monitor.
CIS Countries Inflation
Regional price pressures have averaged close to 10% so far this year—far exceeding the global average—due to strong price pressures in Central Asia, notably Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine. In 2026 as a whole, CIS Plus inflation should average the lowest since 2020, as private spending growth cools. Deepening energy shortages and infrastructure damage are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2024 to 2019.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,064 | 8,575 | 10,202 | 9,980 | 10,498 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 5.3 | -1.4 | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 410 | 512 | 501 | 566 | 582 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 487 | 712 | 835 | 651 | 666 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 5.29 | 8.82 | 9.59 | 15.32 | 18.76 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 79 | 204 | 341 | 94 | 90 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 43.5 | 37.3 | 28.4 | 28.3 | 26.8 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -5.3 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.1 | 4.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.4 | 5.6 | -1.9 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 25.5 | 22.1 | 23.6 | 25.6 | 26.7 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.1 | 7.9 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 721 | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.9 | 9.1 | -1.4 | 7.1 | 5.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.9 | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.6 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 |