CIS Countries Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for economic growth in the CIS Plus region to remain below the world average in 2026 for a second year: War fatigue, Western sanctions and low oil prices should drag on heavyweight Russia. That said, GDP growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia should remain solid. Russia-Ukraine peace talks are key to monitor.
CIS Countries Inflation
Regional inflation has averaged around 9% so far this year—overshooting the global average—but has gradually trended down since April as high interest rates in Russia and Ukraine tame price pressures. In 2026 as a whole, CIS Plus inflation is set to average the lowest since 2020, dampened by softer private consumption growth. Energy shortages are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 43.4 | 37.2 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 26.8 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,076 | 8,588 | 10,216 | 9,996 | 10,519 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 487 | 712 | 835 | 651 | 666 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 721 | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.2 | 7.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 25.5 | 22.1 | 23.6 | 25.7 | 26.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 5.29 | 8.86 | 9.64 | 15.51 | 19.04 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 410 | 512 | 501 | 566 | 582 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 79 | 204 | 341 | 94 | 90 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 5.3 | -1.4 | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.9 | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.6 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -5.3 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.1 | 4.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.9 | 9.1 | -1.4 | 7.1 | 6.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.4 | 5.6 | -1.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 |