CIS Countries Economic Outlook
GDP growth in the CIS Plus region is expected to trail the Eastern European average for a second year in a row in 2026: The Russia-Ukraine conflict, Western sanctions and low oil prices affecting the public coffers should drag on the Russian economy. Still, GDP growth in Central Asia and the Caucasus should remain solid. Russia-Ukraine peace talks are key to monitor.
CIS Countries Inflation
In 2025 as a whole, inflation in the region hit a three-year high amid massive government spending and severe labor shortages in Russia and strong economic momentum in Central Asia. This year, regional price pressures should decline to a six-year low as private consumption growth eases. Higher-than-expected energy prices pose an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.86 | 9.64 | 15.51 | 19.03 | 15.53 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.3 | -1.4 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 2.5 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 | 988 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,583 | 10,223 | 10,011 | 10,554 | 11,761 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 22.1 | 23.6 | 25.6 | 26.7 | 28.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 8.9 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 9.1 | -1.3 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.4 | 28.4 | 28.3 | 26.8 | 25.4 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 713 | 835 | 652 | 667 | 646 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 514 | 502 | 568 | 582 | 596 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 202 | 340 | 92 | 91 | 53 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 3.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.6 | -1.8 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -3.6 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 4.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.4 |