Major Economies Economic Outlook
The G7 economy is expected to cool this year compared to 2024, mainly reflecting weaker growth in Canada, France and the U.S. In contrast, the other members are set for stronger expansions, with Japan projected to pick up the most momentum from 2024. The second half of this year is expected to see weaker expansions across the board than in H1 due to U.S. tariffs.
Major Economies Inflation
Inflation has averaged close to or below central banks’ 2.0% targets in Canada and the three big Eurozone economies since the start of this year, while staying notably above target in Japan, the UK and the U.S. G7 average inflation is expected to be similar to 2024’s rate in 2025 as a whole, thus remaining above pre-pandemic norms.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2021.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -5.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 48,773 | 54,004 | 55,132 | 58,319 | 60,390 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.9 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,810 | 1,958 | 1,755 | 1,836 | 1,352 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -3.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -7.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 133 | 127 | 120 | 119 | 119 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.03 | -0.02 | 3.31 | 4.58 | 3.71 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 2,856 | 3,481 | 3,984 | 3,823 | 3,809 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,938 | 4,768 | 5,517 | 5,187 | 5,341 |