Major Economies Economic Outlook
The economy is seen growing this year at a similar pace to 2025, thus the joint-weakest rate since 2019. While U.S. GDP should race ahead with an over-2% expansion thanks to solid consumer spending and the AI boom, Canada, Japan and major European economies will see expansions in the 0.5–1.5% range. A flare-up in U.S.-EU tensions is a key downside risk.
Major Economies Inflation
Last year, inflation in Canada and the eurozone’s three largest economies averaged around or below central banks’ 2.0% targets. In contrast, Japan, the UK and the U.S. registered inflation in the 2.5–3.5% range. In 2026, inflation should average above 2.0% in the UK and the U.S. and near or below 2.0% in Canada, the eurozone and Japan.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 48,880 | 54,235 | 55,378 | 58,391 | 60,454 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.02 | -0.01 | 3.31 | 4.58 | 3.72 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 133 | 127 | 120 | 119 | 119 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 2,856 | 3,481 | 3,981 | 3,823 | 3,808 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,940 | 4,768 | 5,520 | 5,187 | 5,340 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -1,084 | -1,287 | -1,539 | -1,364 | -1,532 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.9 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,810 | 1,958 | 1,755 | 1,836 | 1,766 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -3.9 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -7.2 | 5.8 | 1.3 | -0.9 | -1.5 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -5.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.2 |