Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
The region’s GDP growth is forecast to rise this year to the strongest since the post-Covid rebound in 2021. Boosts include the Hamas-Israel ceasefire, OPEC+ output hikes, plus lower inflation and interest rates. However, the Iran-U.S. conflict—and its possible spread—poses a downside risk to GDP growth due to its effect on business, investment and tourism.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
MENA inflation rates are forecast to soften this year on aggregate. That said, price pressures will still differ significantly between economies, being soft in dollar-pegged economies but acute in Egypt, Iran, Lebanon and Yemen owing to a mix of struggling currencies, supply shortages and economic dysfunction.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.08 | 1.98 | 5.60 | 6.73 | 6.71 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.5 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 4.1 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -7.8 | 5.1 | 18.6 | 2.9 | 4.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -9.6 | -2.9 | 2.4 | -1.5 | -2.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 56.0 | 51.9 | 43.6 | 43.8 | 45.5 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 46.4 | 44.6 | 39.5 | 43.1 | 43.0 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,177 | 8,591 | 10,111 | 9,492 | 9,759 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 10.8 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 11.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.5 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.5 | 3.4 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 568 | 850 | 1,210 | 1,438 | 1,481 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 562 | 646 | 782 | 1,131 | 1,253 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 6 | 204 | 428 | 307 | 228 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.3 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 7.4 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,034 | 1,116 | 1,148 | 1,219 | 1,274 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.0 | 5.5 | 11.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.5 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 |