Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
Our panelists expect regional GDP growth to clock a joint five-year high in 2026. Stronger domestic demand will drive the improvement, supported by tamed inflation and lower interest rates. Less positively, U.S. tariffs will weigh on export growth. Rising global protectionism poses a downside risk.
Nordic Economies Inflation
In October, inflation fell in Denmark, Finland and Norway, stabilized in Sweden and inched up in Iceland. Regional inflation should continue easing from its 2022 peak in 2026, before stabilizing close to 2% during the rest of our forecast horizon to 2030. Still, inflation is set to exceed central bank targets in Iceland and Norway in 2026.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2019.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 57,321 | 68,061 | 68,414 | 64,818 | 66,105 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 191 | 229 | 248 | 256 | 262 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.9 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 0.4 | 5.9 | 0.9 | -2.6 | -0.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 49.1 | 45.0 | 41.0 | 43.5 | 47.2 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 0.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.7 | 3.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 3.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.22 | -0.07 | 2.35 | 4.05 | 3.23 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 170 | 216 | 241 | 219 | 218 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 147 | 163 | 153 | 159 | 163 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.7 | 2.5 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 |