Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
GDP growth is set to accelerate this year from last on stronger domestic demand spurred by easing inflation and past interest rate cuts. That said, the external sector will act as a drag as export growth should slow to a three-year low on U.S. tariffs. Escalating tensions with the U.S. and associated tariff hikes are key to track.
Nordic Economies Inflation
In December, inflation decreased in Denmark and Sweden, but rose in Finland, Iceland and Norway. In 2026, regional inflation is set to average at a six-year low, before stabilizing near 2% throughout the rest of our forecast horizon to 2030. Still, inflation will remain above central bank targets in Iceland and Norway this year.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2019.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 48.7 | 44.6 | 40.6 | 43.1 | 46.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.7 | 3.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.22 | -0.07 | 2.35 | 4.05 | 3.23 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.7 | 2.5 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.9 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 57,321 | 68,061 | 68,414 | 64,825 | 66,127 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 0.4 | 5.9 | 0.9 | -2.5 | -0.4 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | -1.4 | 0.8 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 191 | 229 | 248 | 256 | 262 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 170 | 216 | 241 | 219 | 218 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 147 | 163 | 153 | 159 | 163 |