Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Population growth, debt deals, economic reforms and increased investment attractiveness will push 2025 regional GDP growth to a three-year high. Still, downside risks to the outlook are mounting due to heightened trade uncertainty, wobbly debt sustainability and the expiration of the U.S.’ preferential investment and trade policy for sub-Saharan Africa at end-2025.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
After easing in March, inflation further cooled in over half of the countries with available data for April. Past interest rate increases will drive the regional slowdown in inflation this year. Extreme weather, weaker-than-anticipated domestic currencies and faster-than-projected private consumption growth are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.4 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 24.8 | 24.7 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 27.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.7 | -7.0 | -5.2 | -4.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 48.2 | 55.7 | 55.1 | 54.6 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.8 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 14.8 | 15.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 10.31 | 8.62 | 8.40 | 12.12 | 13.97 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | -2.3 | -0.6 | -1.7 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 278 | 229 | 315 | 367 | 335 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 260 | 217 | 268 | 323 | 303 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 149 | 137 | 163 | 152 | 147 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 49.9 | 55.8 | 48.5 | 46.0 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 1.7 | -2.4 | 11.6 | 1.1 | -0.5 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.7 | -1.8 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.6 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,958 | 1,765 | 1,956 | 2,059 | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.8 | -8.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 |