Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
2026 regional GDP growth should inch up to a four-year high, supported by strong population growth, higher disposable income plus economic reforms increasing investment attractiveness. Downside risks to the outlook include extreme weather, social and political instability and lower-than-expected job creation.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation decelerated in October to 7.9%, and has tended to trend down since its November 2022 peak of 17.2%. In 2026, regional inflation should fall to a seven-year low, and our Consensus is for the downward trend to carry on through 2029. Extreme weather and domestic currency weakness remain key upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,765 | 1,959 | 2,064 | 1,976 | 1,710 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 45.2 | 41.5 | 39.5 | 41.2 | 48.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 56.2 | 55.8 | 55.1 | 55.5 | 59.9 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 137 | 163 | 152 | 147 | 168 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 235 | 291 | 350 | 331 | 330 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 229 | 315 | 367 | 336 | 354 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.60 | 8.34 | 12.05 | 14.35 | 14.96 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -2.4 | 11.6 | 1.2 | -0.5 | -4.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.0 | -5.2 | -4.7 | -3.8 | -3.8 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 4.4 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.3 | -0.5 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -0.4 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 24.7 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 27.3 | 27.5 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -9 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 20 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 9.0 | 11.1 | 14.8 | 15.8 | 13.1 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.9 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - |