Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Strong population growth, waning inflation and interest rates plus increased investment attractiveness amid ongoing fiscal consolidation and economic reforms will push regional GDP growth above its past-decade average in 2026. Extreme weather, social and political instability plus lower-than-expected job creation are key downside risks.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation held steady at December’s 7.0% in January; in February, the downward trend—from November 2022’s peak—is expected to have resumed as inflation waned in most of the countries with available data for the month. Our Consensus is for regional inflation to trend down further through 2030—the end of our forecast horizon. Commodity prices are key to watch.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.99 | 12.89 | 14.78 | 15.39 | 14.02 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 29.2 | 28.9 | 27.3 | 27.4 | 26.1 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 160 | 152 | 132 | 168 | 180 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.4 | 35.5 | 40.6 | 47.6 | 44.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 2,178 | 2,298 | 2,006 | 1,737 | 1,899 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 13.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | -3.3 | 4.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.1 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.7 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 13.0 | 9.5 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.5 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -0.4 | -0.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.7 | -4.2 | -3.7 | -3.8 | -3.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 50.7 | 50.3 | 55.7 | 60.0 | 59.3 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 291 | 350 | 331 | 330 | 346 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 21 | 12 | 1 | 20 | 21 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 315 | 367 | 336 | 354 | 373 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - | - |