Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for 2026 regional GDP growth to hit a four-year high on lower inflation and interest rates, strong population growth and increased investment attractiveness amid ongoing economic reforms. Social and political instability, lower-than-expected job creation and extreme weather remain key downside risks to the outlook.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation eased to 7.7% in November—since peaking at 17.2% in November 2022—and waned further in around half of the countries with available data for December. In 2026, our Consensus is for regional inflation to fall to an over decade low, and ease further through the end of our forecast horizon in 2030. Extreme weather remains a key risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 9.17 | 8.99 | 12.89 | 14.78 | 15.39 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -1.3 | 13.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | -3.3 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -10.4 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 4.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 9.5 | 11.7 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 13.0 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.1 | -0.5 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -0.4 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.2 | -4.7 | -4.2 | -3.7 | -3.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 50.9 | 50.7 | 50.3 | 55.7 | 60.0 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 40.4 | 37.4 | 35.5 | 40.6 | 47.6 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,977 | 2,178 | 2,297 | 2,005 | 1,737 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 235 | 291 | 350 | 331 | 330 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -9 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 20 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 229 | 315 | 367 | 336 | 354 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 137 | 163 | 152 | 147 | 168 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 24.7 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 27.3 | 27.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - |