Argentina: Economic activity returns to growth in March
Latest reading: Economic activity increased 5.5% in annual terms in March, following a 2.0% decline in the prior month. March’s reading was the strongest since June 2025.
Relative to the previous month’s data, readings in March improved for agriculture (+17.9% in annual terms vs +8.2% in February), manufacturing (+4.6% vs -9.1% in February), construction (+7.6% vs -1.1% in February) and transport and communications (+4.7% vs -0.8% in February). In contrast, the reading for hotels and restaurants worsened in March (+0.9% vs +1.3% in February).
On a month-on-month basis, economic activity was up 3.5% in March, following a 2.7% fall in the prior month.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“High-frequency indicators point to mixed momentum in April–May. External demand remained resilient, with exports and imports rising 1.0% and 0.8% MoM/SA in April, respectively. By contrast, domestic demand softened. Consumer confidence fell sharply in April (-5.7% MoM) and only partially rebounded in May (+1.3% MoM). Activity indicators also signal weakness on the consumption side, with retail sales declining 1.3% MoM/SA in April, reflecting still-constrained labor income and purchasing power. That said, ongoing disinflation coupled with lower interest rates should gradually support a recovery in real incomes, providing some upside to private consumption in the near term.”