Argentina: Economic growth is stable in the fourth quarter of 2025
Moderate GDP growth recorded: Argentina’s GDP grew 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4, unchanged from the prior quarter’s reading. In annual terms, GDP expanded 2.1% in Q4, following 3.3% growth in the previous quarter.
Private consumption drives growth: Compared to the prior quarter’s data, figures in Q4 improved for private consumption (+1.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis vs +0.3% in Q3), fixed investment (-2.8% vs -5.3% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (+1.2% vs -2.5% in Q3). In contrast, readings worsened for government consumption (-1.0% vs +0.3% in Q3) and exports of goods and services (+5.0% vs +6.7% in Q3).
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“We forecast GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026, underpinned by a firmer outlook for investment and private consumption, alongside a favorable statistical carryover. That said, the recent acceleration in inflation tempers our optimism regarding a real wage recovery, warranting a more cautious stance on the pace of the consumption rebound. Separately, leading indicators for investment such as imports of capital goods have yet to signal a recovery in the near term.”