Belgium: Economic growth picks up in the third quarter of 2025
Sequential GDP growth matches the euro area’s in Q3: A second release confirmed that Belgium’s GDP grew 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q3, following a 0.2% expansion in the previous quarter and matching the euro area average.
A rebound in fixed investment drives the acceleration: Relative to the previous quarter’s data, figures in Q3 picked up for fixed investment (+1.6% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs -1.2% in Q2), exports of goods and services (-0.7% vs -1.0% in Q2) and imports of goods and services (-0.7% vs -0.9% in Q2). In contrast, readings softened for private consumption (+0.1% vs +0.4% in Q2) and government consumption (+0.7% vs +1.2% in Q2).
The sharp rebound in fixed investment was driven by unexpectedly strong business outlays, while public capex also recovered from its Q2 slump. However, private consumption decelerated as the retail sector softened.
In annual terms, GDP expanded 1.0% in Q3, unchanged from Q2’s print.
Momentum to ease in Q4: Our Consensus is for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to edge down in Q4, as stalled business confidence and softer demand expectations among managers in October–November are likely weighing on investment. Still, rising purchasing power should aid household spending, and public investment in defense is set to increase.
In 2026, our panel expects economic growth to remain broadly stable from 2025. Private spending will be constrained by lower income growth, tax hikes and wage-indexation limits, but stronger fixed investment and exports should support activity, holding up against U.S. tariffs and sluggish regional momentum.