China: Manufacturing PMI ticks up in November; non-manufacturing PMI falls
Latest reading: China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI in November inched up to 49.2 from October’s six-month low of 49.0, aligning with market expectations. Despite the slight improvement, it still signaled an eighth consecutive month of shrinking factory activity, as producers continued to struggle with weak demand, fierce domestic price competition and cautious sentiment toward exports amid global uncertainty. New orders continued to decline for a fifth month, and foreign sales, purchasing activity and employment all stayed subdued.
Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped in November to 49.5, the lowest level since late 2022 and marking the first contraction in nearly three years. The figure also came in below market expectations, highlighting fading momentum across consumer-reliant sectors, which have been pressured by weak confidence, a slow property market, and ongoing external challenges. Limited fiscal support has done little to offset these headwinds. New orders, overseas demand and employment also stayed in contraction territory.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the data, Nomura analysts said:
“The contraction across both official PMIs reinforces our view of a demand plunge in H2, which we have been highlighting since early July. […] Beijing is considering a slew of new measures to aid the ailing property market, signaling its increasing concern over the worsening property downturn and the demand plunge. We expect Beijing to step up policy support in spring 2026 to prevent growth from sliding too much during the first year covered by the 15th Five-Year Plan.”