Germany: Merchandise trade surplus widens in September
Latest reading: In September, the trade balance was EUR +17.3 billion, following a EUR +12.5 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to EUR +202.5 billion.
Exports increased 1.4% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in September, coming on the back of a downwardly revised 0.8% drop in the previous month. Imports were up 3.1% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in September, following a 1.4% fall in the previous month.
Panelist insight: Carsten Brzeski from ING highlighted the risks to German exports:
“Looking ahead, German exports are still facing rough headwinds. US tariffs are still weighing on exports and will probably only show their full impact over the coming months, notwithstanding the risk of new tariffs. At the same time, German exporters are currently facing a triple China shock: weaker demand for German products in China, increased competition from Chinese producers in third markets and Germany’s home market, the EU, and finally the dependence on Chinese rare earths.”