Japan: Industrial production contracts in November
Latest reading: Industrial production was down 2.7% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in November, following a 1.5% rise in the previous month. November’s decrease was the strongest since January 2024 and faster than had been expected by the market.
Relative to the prior month’s data, the reading for manufacturing worsened in November (-2.8% on a month-on-month basis vs +1.3% in October), with declines in electrical machinery and ICT equipment, automobile production and fabricated metals. In contrast, the reading for mining improved in November (+4.6% vs -3.3% in October).
On a year-on-year basis, industrial production declined 2.2% in November, following a 1.6% increase in the previous month.
Outlook: The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry forecasts industrial production to fall another 0.6% month on month in December. Nonetheless, this forecast implies industrial production rose 0.7% over Q4 as a whole, the strongest showing since Q2 2024 and pointing to the sector’s resilience in the face of U.S. tariffs.