New Zealand: Economic growth decelerates in the fourth quarter of 2025
GDP reading: New Zealand’s GDP expanded 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4, following 0.9% growth in the previous quarter and less than markets were expecting.
Broad-based slowdown: Compared to the prior quarter’s data, readings in Q4 softened for private consumption (-0.1% on a quarter-on-quarter basis vs +0.1% in Q3), fixed investment (-2.2% vs +2.0% in Q3), exports of goods and services (+0.1% vs +3.0% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (+1.0% vs +2.3% in Q3). In contrast, the reading for government consumption improved in Q4 (+2.2% vs +1.4% in Q3).
On a year-on-year basis, economic output increased 1.3% in Q4, following a 1.1% expansion in the previous quarter.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, ANZ analysts said:
“We have updated our GDP forecast in a first attempt at incorporating potential impacts of the conflict in the Middle East, alongside incorporating the weak starting point momentum shown in [the Q4] data. Our update shaves a cumulative 0.7ppt off New Zealand GDP growth in the year ended Q4 2026: 0.5ppt from the conflict and oil shock, and 0.2ppt from weaker starting point momentum.”