Nigeria: Nigerian oil production ticks up in October
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 63.69 per barrel in November, down 0.5% from October. On 28 November, the commodity traded at USD 63.24 per barrel, down 2.9% from 31 October after an eighth consecutive OPEC+ output hike.
Turning to production, Nigerian oil output ticked up to 1.51 million barrels per day (mbpd) in October from September’s 1.50 mbpd. Consequently, output remained above Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd for a seventh successive month. In other news, the nation’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery—Africa’s largest—has pledged to ramp up production through January 2026 to ensure a holiday season free of fuel scarcity, in line with its commitment to national wellbeing. Moreover, Nigeria recently debuted its world tour in China to offer 50 oil and gas exploration blocks to investors as Africa’s top crude producer aims to boost daily production by 1 million barrels by 2027.
Outlook: This year, oil production is set to reach a five-year high as rising capacity at the Dangote refinery will underpin crude demand in Nigeria. Still, the country is expected to narrowly miss its OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd due to a fragile security situation and an uncertain domestic regulatory environment. In 2026, oil output is expected to rise above its OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd for the first time since 2020, before continuing its upward trend through 2029. Turmoil in the oil-producing Niger Delta remains a key downside risk.