Russia: Inflation ebbs in October from the prior month
Latest reading: Consumer prices were up 7.7% on a year-on-year basis in October, following a 8.0% increase in the previous month. The reading marked a 19-month low and surprised markets to the downside, but still remains well above the 4.0% Central Bank inflation target.
Relative to the previous month’s data, there were milder price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+9.2% in annual terms vs +9.5% in September) and services (+10.4% vs +11.1% in September). Finally, the change in non-food goods prices was the same as in the prior month (+3.8% in October and September).
Meanwhile, core consumer prices increased 6.9% on a year-on-year basis in October, following a 7.7% rise in the prior month.
Lastly, consumer prices increased 0.50% in October in month-on-month terms, following a 0.34% rise in the prior month.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, EIU analysts stated:
“We expect inflation to continue to ease, although the risk remains to the upside, with inflation expectations still high, a weakening rouble and tight labour markets, as well as ongoing Ukrainian strikes on hydrocarbons infrastructure—which are currently causing petrol shortages and will probably add to inflationary pressures.”