Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabian oil output continues to rise sharply in November
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 63.69 per barrel in November, down 0.5% from October. On 28 November, the commodity traded at USD 63.24 per barrel, down 2.9% from 31 October.
Turning to production, Saudi oil output was 10.05 million barrels per day (mbpd) in November, up 12.2% year on year (October: 10.00 mbpd; up 11.4% yoy). This marked the seventh consecutive year-on-year increase following a long slump, and was the sharpest in just over three years. The rise was driven by looser OPEC+ output restrictions.
Outlook: In recent months, OPEC+ has loosened output curbs unexpectedly quickly, in turn brightening the outlook for Saudi Arabia’s oil production. That said, the cartel seemed to change course slightly in November, agreeing to halt output increases in Q1 of next year.
All in all, our Consensus Forecast is for Saudi crude production to rise annually for the first time in three years in 2025, and to increase even more sharply in 2026. Still, yearly output is expected to stay below 2022’s peak of about 10.5 mbpd until 2028.