United States: Job gains beat expectations in January
Latest reading: The labor market expanded by 130,000 jobs in January 2026, a sharp acceleration from December’s downwardly revised increase of 48,000 and comfortably above expectations of 70,000. This marks the strongest monthly payroll growth since late 2024. Hiring was concentrated in health care as well as in social assistance and construction. Manufacturing also posted a modest net gain.
By contrast, federal government employment declined, reflecting the departure of workers who had previously opted into a deferred resignation program and subsequently rolled off agency payrolls. Finally, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% in January from 4.4% in December.
Panelist insight: Digging into the data, Desjardins’ Francis Généreux said:
“The US labour market appears to have stopped deteriorating. January’s data even show an acceleration in hiring after several months of rather modest gains. The key question now is whether this momentum will continue. We expect further job gains in the coming months, although not necessarily at the pace recorded in January. For the moment, economic conditions remain consistent with the Federal Reserve maintaining the status quo on monetary policy.”