Uruguay: Central Bank of Uruguay cuts interest rate in November
Bank reduces rates for the fourth consecutive time: At its meeting on 18 November, the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to 8.00%, in line with our Consensus. This marked the fourth consecutive cut, bringing total reductions to 125 basis points since June 2025, as the Bank continues advancing toward a neutral interest rate level of 7.0%.
Stable inflation and balanced GDP growth make room for cut: The Central Bank saw room to ease its monetary policy as price pressures hovered near the BCU’s 4.5% target over the past five months and inflation expectations remained at historically low levels in October. Moreover, the BCU noted that the output gap remained close to zero, indicating that the economy is growing in line with its capacity and that a larger cut was not necessary.
Bank to trim rates ahead: The BCU indicated that if price pressures and inflation expectations continue to trend down as expected, it will continue to cut rates. In line with this, our Consensus is for a further rate cut at the last meeting of 2025 on 23 December. In 2026, our panelists expect the easing cycle to continue.