GDP reading: Hong Kong’s GDP expanded 5.9% in annual terms in Q1, following 4.0% growth in the previous quarter and...
Economic Growth in Mexico
Mexico's GDP growth over the last decade was moderate by emerging market standards, constrained by structural challenges and policy uncertainties. The economy benefited from its proximity to the United States but faced headwinds from a lack of structural reforms and an ambivalent stance towards the private sector under President Obrador. Post-pandemic the economy has benefitted from a recovery in tourism, strong remittances and exports, and state investment in large infrastructure projects such as the Maya Train and a new airport.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Mexico was 1.45%, compared to 2.50% in 2014 and 3.35% in 2023. It averaged 1.51% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Mexico GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Mexico from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
Mexico GDP Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,316 | 1,468 | 1,796 | 1,829 | 1,846 |
| GDP (MXN bn) | 26,690 | 29,526 | 31,866 | 33,507 | 35,566 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 10.8 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 6.1 |
Economy slips into contraction in the first quarter of 2026
GDP reading: Mexico's GDP contracted 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q1, following 0.9% growth in the previous quarter. Q1's reading was the weakest since Q4 2024 and a far steeper downturn than markets expected.
Contractions seen across sectors: Relative to the prior period's data, readings in Q1 worsened for the services sector (-0.6% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs +0.9% in Q4) and the industrial sector (-1.1% vs +0.9% in Q4). Finally, the variation in the primary sector was the same as in the prior quarter (-1.4% in Q1 and Q4). In annual terms, GDP expanded 0.1% in Q1, following 1.8% growth in the previous quarter and also undershooting market expectations.
Panelist insight: On the data and outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “The data confirms that economic activity decelerated as expected in the first quarter, leaving a statistical carry over of -0.2% into 2026. This follows weakness in the annual growth in 1Q25, when recession concerns briefly emerged, but contrasts with the strong 4Q25 print, which mechanically boosted base effects. Recent March trade data suggest that exports contributed positively to 1Q growth, while IGAE indicators point to soft performance in services, agriculture, and mining. Looking ahead, near term momentum remains subdued, but we still anticipate a gradual recovery supported by firmer domestic demand and a modest boost from the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which we estimate will add 0.1pp to annual GDP growth.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 56 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Mexican GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Mexican GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Mexican GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
Latest Global GDP News
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