Angolan oil production falls further in December

Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 64.59 per barrel in January, up 4.6% from December. On 30 January, the commodity traded at USD 70.73 per barrel, up 16.2% from 31 December. The risk of supply disruptions rose after the U.S. sent an armada to push Iran to accept a nuclear deal, compounding the hit to supply from outages in Kazakhstan and Libya and storms in the U.S. On the demand side, India reportedly agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil, likely increasing its demand for supplies from Western trading hubs, which are priced against the Brent benchmark. On the production front, Angolan oil output ticked down to 1.03 million barrels per day (mbpd) in December from 1.06 mbpd in November, marking the second consecutive month-on-month decrease. In addition, production undershot the 1.08 mbpd expected by national oil firm ANPG and moved further below the 2015–2024 average of 1.39 mbpd.

Outlook: Our Consensus is for crude production in Angola to rise in 2026 from last year and continue to gradually gain momentum through 2029. That said, production is set to remain below its 2015–2024 average until 2030. Extensive oil sector reforms have unlocked substantial investments from international oil majors. In the short term, new production from TotalEnergies and the recent launch of the Agogo IWH project by Azule Energy—a joint venture between BP and Eni—will support output. Looking further ahead, a second oil refinery, in Cabinda—a joint venture between Gemcorp Holdings and Sonangol—is expected to begin operations in the first half of 2026, boosting production ahead. Furthermore, construction work is expected to begin on two more refineries imminently. Still, aging oil fields and frequent maintenance at major wells will continue to constrain production. Potential delays to key projects pose a downside risk.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan oil projections for the next ten years from a panel of 4 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable oil forecast available for Angolan oil.

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